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Concerns for further impactful weather prompts MetService Red Warnings
30/1/2023
Covering period of Mon 30 Jan - Thu 2 Feb

After consultation with the local regional councils MetService has issued Red Warnings for Heavy Rain in Northland, Auckland north of Orewa, and the Coromandel Peninsula.

 

The Red Warnings have been triggered because of the likely impacts - significant flooding, slips, and further damage to roads and power networks. Previous heavy rainfall since Friday means that these regions are already saturated, still cleaning up from the last event, and are vulnerable to further heavy rain.

Short Forecast

Valid to Midnight Wednesday

Northland, Auckland and Coromandel
Rain with heavy falls and possible thunderstorms, easing tomorrow morning or afternoon.

Waikato to Taranaki, including Bay of Plenty and the central high country, also Gisborne
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers today. Periods of rain tomorrow, heavy at times, with possible thunderstorms about Taranaki from evening.

Whanganui to Wellington, also Hawke's Bay and Wairarapa
Often cloudy, with isolated showers. Scattered rain tomorrow.

Nelson
Mostly cloudy with isolated showers today. Periods of rain tomorrow, heavy at times, with possible thunderstorms from evening.

Buller, Westland and Fiordland, also Marlborough and Canterbury
Partly cloudy with isolated showers, some possibly heavy and thundery, especially inland. Rain spreading south at times tomorrow.

Otago and Southland
Scattered showers, mainly afternoon and evening, some heavy and possibly thundery.

Chatham Islands
Fine and cloudy periods.

Extended Forecast

Thursday
North Island: Rain, possibly heavy in Bay of Plenty and Rotorua. Isolated showers elsewhere, widespread in the afternoon and evening, with possible thundery falls in Taranaki, Whanganui, Manawatu and Wairarapa. South Island: Rain in the west, with heavy falls and possible morning thunderstorms. Scattered rain or showers elsewhere, some showers can be heavy and thundery in Southland and Clutha afternoon and evening.

Friday
North Island: Rain or showers for most, becoming isolated in the evening. South Island: Rain in the west, heavy in southern Westland and Fiordland. Scattered rain or showers elsewhere, clearing later. Fine in Canterbury Plains.

Saturday
North Island: Partly cloudy with isolated showers, widespread in the regions from Taihape to Wairarapa in the afternoon and evening. South Island: Periods of rain in the west. Isolated showers elsewhere, but fine in Canterbury Plains.

Chatham Islands
Fine breaks with northerlies.

Severe Thunderstorm INFORMATION

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Area: Northland

Period: 16hrs from noon Tue, 31 Jan - 4am Wed, 1 Feb

Forecast: A front is expected to bring heavy rain to Northland during Tuesday and overnight into Wednesday, as detailed in the Heavy Rain Warning. There is a moderate risk of SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS with this front, bringing localised downpours of 25 to 40 mm/h or possibly more.

Rainfall of this intensity can cause surface and/or flash flooding, especially about low-lying areas such as streams, rivers or narrow valleys, and may also lead to slips.

Driving conditions will also be hazardous with surface flooding and poor visibility in heavy rain.

Expect thunderstorms to ease from the north Tuesday evening and overnight.

Issued: 10:21am Tue, 31 Jan
Next update: 9pm Tue, 31 Jan

Area: Canterbury High Country, Central Otago, Clutha, Southland

Period: 7hrs from 2pm - 9pm Tue, 31 Jan

Forecast: Afternoon and evening heating and wind convergence are expected to produce scattered heavy showers across Southland, Clutha, Central Otago and inland parts of South Canterbury. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms in these areas, and some of these thunderstorms may become SEVERE with downpours of 25 to 40 mm/h in localised places.

Rainfall of this intensity can cause surface and/or flash flooding, especially about low-lying areas such as streams, rivers or narrow valleys, and may also lead to slips.

Driving conditions will also be hazardous with surface flooding and poor visibility in heavy rain.

Expect thunderstorm activity to ease tonight.

Issued: 10:21am Tue, 31 Jan
Next update: 4pm Tue, 31 Jan

Note: A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favourable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. People in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and monitor for possible Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.

For information on preparing for and keeping safe during a storm, see the Civil Defence Get Ready website

Severe Weather Warnings & Watches

Situation

Further heavy rain for northern New Zealand along with possible severe gale northeasterlies. Periods of heavy rain for northern and western South Island.

A strong and humid northeast flow covering the North Island spreads south over the rest of the country during Wednesday. Bursts of heavy rain and thunderstorms are likely for a number of North Island regions through into Thursday, especially with an embedded front that is forecast to move slowly southeastwards over northern New Zealand. Rain spreads onto northern and western parts of the South Island on Wednesday, and continues into Friday.

Red heavy rain warnings are in place for Northland, Auckland north of Orewa and Coromandel Peninsula.

Orange heavy rain warnings are in place for Auckland from Orewa southwards, Great Barrier Island, Bay of Plenty and northern Gisborne.

Heavy rain watches are now in place for Waikato, Mount Taranaki, northwest Tasman and Westland.

A watch for severe northeast gales is also in place for Northland and Auckland, with large waves affecting eastern coastlines.

People are advised to keep up to date with the latest forecasts in case any changes are made, or further areas are added.

Heavy Rain Warning - Red

Impact: This rain is expected to cause dangerous river conditions and significant flooding. Slips and floodwaters are likely to disrupt travel, making some roads impassable and possibly isolating communities.

Area: Northland

Period: 19hrs from 9am Tue, 31 Jan - 4am Wed, 1 Feb

Forecast: Expect 100 to 140 mm of rain in the north and east, with lesser amounts in the west. However, localised areas may receive 140 to 220 mm. Peak rates of 10 to 20 mm/h, mainly in the north and east, but localised areas may see 25 to 40 mm/h, or possibly more. Thunderstorms are also possible, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is also in force.

Area: Auckland north of Orewa

Period: 15hrs from 5pm Tue, 31 Jan - 8am Wed, 1 Feb

Forecast: Expect 80 to 120 mm of rain. Peak rates of 10 to 20 mm/h, but localised areas may see downpours of 25 to 40 mm/h. Thunderstorms are also possible.

Area: Coromandel Peninsula

Period: 17hrs from 10pm Tue, 31 Jan - 3pm Wed, 1 Feb

Forecast: Expect 100 to 150 mm of rain about the ranges, with lesser amounts about the coast. Peak rates of 15 to 25 mm/h, especially about the ranges. Thunderstorms are also possible.

Heavy Rain Warning - Orange

Impact: Heavy rain may cause streams and rivers to rise rapidly. Surface flooding and slips are also possible and driving conditions may be hazardous.

Area: Auckland from Orewa southwards, and Great Barrier Island

Period: 14hrs from 8pm Tue, 31 Jan - 10am Wed, 1 Feb

Forecast: Expect 50 to 80 mm of rain, especially north of the Harbour Bridge. Peak rates of 10 to 20 mm/h, but localised areas may see downpours of 25 to 40 mm/h. Thunderstorms are also possible.

Area: Bay of Plenty west of Whakatane

Period: 18hrs from 3am - 9pm Wed, 1 Feb

Forecast: Expect 100 to 150 mm of rain. Peak rates of 15 to 25 mm/h.

Area: Bay of Plenty about and east of Whakatane, also Gisborne north of Ruatoria

Period: 21hrs from 1pm Wed, 1 Feb - 10am Thu, 2 Feb

Forecast: Expect 100 to 120 mm of rain, with the largest amounts likely about Gisborne north of Ruatoria.

Heavy Rain Watch

Area: Tasman northwest of Motueka

Period: 13hrs from 7am - 8pm Wed, 1 Feb

Forecast: Periods of heavy rain. Rainfall amounts may approach warning criteria.

Area: Westland south of Otira

Period: 41hrs from 4am Thu, 2 Feb - 9pm Fri, 3 Feb

Forecast: Periods of heavy rain. Rainfall amounts may exceed warning criteria. Note, heavy rain eases north of the Glaciers for a time Thursday evening and Friday morning.

Area: Waikato

Period: 13hrs from 2am - 3pm Wed, 1 Feb

Forecast: Periods of heavy rain. Rainfall amounts may approach warning criteria.

Area: Mount Taranaki

Period: 20hrs from 6am Wed, 1 Feb - 2am Thu, 2 Feb

Forecast: Periods of heavy rain. Rainfall amounts may approach warning criteria.

Strong Wind Watch

Area: Northland

Period: 18hrs from 9am Tue, 31 Jan - 3am Wed, 1 Feb

Forecast: Northeast winds may approach severe gale in exposed places.

Area: Auckland

Period: 12hrs from 6pm Tue, 31 Jan - 6am Wed, 1 Feb

Forecast: Northeast winds may approach severe gale in exposed places.

Road Snowfall Warnings

No Road Snowfall Warnings in force.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin

No Cyclone Warnings In Place

People are urged to keep up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings, and to stay alert to bulletins from local authorities.

For More Information & Updates Go To

MetService - Te Ratonga Tirorangi

Or

WWW.Weatherwatch.co.nz

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